Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas [ISBN not on www]

כריכה קדמית
Peterson Institute, 2000
 

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תוכן

The Bubble Story
191
The Crisis
196
PostCrisis Developments
209
Recovery
235
Conclusions
237
The Prospect for Successful Reform in the North
239
Reform in the North
240
A General Equilibrium Perspective on Reform
254

Economic Policy under President Chun
10
The Democracy Pledge and Twentyfive Years of Development
12
Precrisis Economic Policy 1987 to 1997
17
Conclusions
45
The North Korean Economy
47
Organization of the North Korean Economy
49
Statistical Comparison of the North and South Korean Economies
61
Crisis Response
70
International Economic Relations
75
Current Reforms
121
Conclusions
128
The Nuclear Confrontation
131
The Nuclear Program
133
The Agreed Framework
139
The Suspect Site and the Missile Test
146
Evaluation
154
The SlowMotion Famine in the North
159
The Food Balance
168
Food for Peace
170
The Peoples Republic of Misery
179
The Financial Crisis in the South
183
Financial Fragility
187
The Likelihood of Reform
269
The Implications of North Korean Collapse
273
The German Experience
274
Relevance to Korea
283
A General Equilibrium Perspective on Collapse and Absorption
289
Conceptualizing the Costs and Benefits of Unification
295
Dynamic Results
298
Policy Lessons of the German Experience for South Korea
306
Thinking Beyond the German Case
308
Can the North Muddle Through?
311
Socialism in One Family
312
Muddling Through in Our Own Style
321
Sustainability
330
Conclusions
335
North Korea
336
South Korea
340
Other Actors
355
Final Thoughts
363
References
365
Appendix
389
Index
393
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