mines, build railways and construct harbour-works (including dock-yards) in the Provinces of Fukien, Japan shall be first consulted.

"Art. 7. China agrees that Japanese subjects shall have the right of missionary propaganda in China.” 1

These Twenty-one Demands were rather curiously prefaced by the statement: "The Japanese Government and the Chinese Government, being desirous of maintaining the general peace in Eastern Asia and further strengthening the good neighbourhood between the two nations, agree to the following." They were presented by the Japanese Minister directly to the President, Yuan Shih-kai. The utmost secrecy was maintained and, when rumours became current, the Japanese Government officially denied their existence. A month later, it issued a statement listing only eleven demands, Group V and the more objectional requests being omitted. On April 26th, in place of the original Twenty-one Demands, twenty-four were presented with slightly different wording. On May 7, an ultimatum was sent by Japan, demanding the immediate acceptance of the first four groups and threatening force if a favourable answer was not received. fifth group was to be held over for future negotiations.

The

1 Refers to preaching Buddhism.

On May 8, China submitted, at the same time affirming in a supplementary statement that it was forced to take this step and that it would not be responsible for any consequent infringements upon the treaty rights of other nations or the principle of the "Open Door."

The conclusion of these negotiations marked the winning by Japan of most of its original objectives. The hope of making China entirely subservient had not been realized, but Japan's power over the Republic had been enormously increased and the acquiring of final control seemed only a matter of time. The situation was summed up by Dr. Stanley K. Hornbeck, a leading authority on Far Eastern affairs, as follows:

"Whatever her intentions, Japan has accomplished in regard to China at least five things: she has consolidated her own position in her northern sphere of influence, Manchuria; she has driven the Germans out of their former sphere of influence, Shantung, and has constituted herself successor to Germany's rights; she has given warning that she considers Fukien Province an exclusive spheré for Japanese influence; she has undertaken to invade the British sphere of influence; and she stands in a position to menace and to dictate to the Peking government. A glance at the map of North China will show how completely Peking is at Japan's mercy. In control of Port Arthur and of the

Shantung Peninsula, Japan commands the entrance to the Gulf of Pechili, which is the doorway by sea to Tien-tsin and Newchwang. In possession of Tsingtao, Dairen, and (virtually) of Antung and Newchwang, Japan thus commands every important port and harbour of the Yangtse. With the Manchurian railways penetrating the heart of Manchuria and the Shantung Railway extending to the heart of Shantung

and with the right to extend the latter line to join the Peking-Hankow line-Japan is in a position, should she so choose, at any moment to grind Peking between the millstones of her military machine. So far as strategy is concerned, Japan has North China commercially, militarily, and politically at her mercy.'

The interest aroused among the nations by these negotiations was, of course, keen, and the matter attracted world-wide publicity. The United States was the only great power not involved in the war in Europe, and it was perhaps natural that it should be the one country openly to voice a protest against the settlement. On May 16 she delivered the following note to the Chinese Government at Peking and to the Japanese Government at Tokyo:

"In view of the circumstances of the negotiations

1 S. K. Hornbeck, Contemporary Politics in the Far-East, page 346.

which have taken place or which are now pending between the Government of China and the Government of Japan and the agreements which have been reached and as a result thereof, the Government of the United States has the honour to notify the Government of the Chinese Republic that it cannot recognize any agreement or undertaking which has been entered into, or which may be entered into between the Governments of China and Japan impairing the treaty rights of the United States and its citizens in China, the political or territorial integrity of the Republic of China, or the international policy, commonly known as the open door policy."

Thus the first year of the Great War brought changes of the most vital importance to the Orient. Whether or not these changes shall become permanent can be decided only at the conference which will come at the close of the world-conflict.

CHAPTER II

THE ATTACK UPON THE CHINESE REPUBLIC FROM
WITHIN, DURING THE SECOND YEAR
OF THE WAR

THE ATTEMPT OF YUAN SHIH-KAI TO RESTORE THE

MONARCHY

THE first year of the war brought vital changes in China's foreign relations, especially in those with Japan. The second year saw changes within the country of almost as great importance.

These changes, in their ultimate result, were in line with the world tendencies of the present time toward democracy and popular government. Writing in August, 1916, to the New York Times, the author tried to sum up the events of the preceding months, saying in part:

"If it were not for the all-absorbing cataclysm in Europe, all eyes would be turned toward the Orient and the great movements now in evidence there. Certainly the developments in India and Japan since the Great War began are of vast importance in the moulding of the future of Asia. But it is in China, espe