of them; or that the Gospels containing these predictions were written after the events. The first the sceptic is resolved at all hazards to deny; the second he cannot suppose; the last he must assert or give up his cause. For the same reason, therefore, that the heathen Porphyry, when he could not deny the strict correspondence between the prophecies of Daniel and the subsequent history of Egypt and Syria, rather than confess that Daniel was a prophet, contradicted every principle of historical testimony for the sake of pretending that he must have written after the occurrence of what he foretold. So have some modern Porphyries been driven to assert that the Evangelists who relate this prophecy of Jerusalem must have written after the city was destroyed.* I need not say that the only reason pretended to in support of this assertion is the very thing we have been labouring to show, the strict agreement between the prophecy and the event. Their argument is neither more nor less than the following: If these words were written before the destruction of Jerusalem, Jesus was a genuine prophet. But we will not believe him to have been a genuine prophet. Therefore these words were not written before the destruction of Jerusalem. A conclusion as shameless as it is senseless; as opposite to the faith of all history as to the rules of all sound criticism, and the opinion of the learned of all ages. It shows the strength of the argument from prophecy, as well as the infatuated obstinacy with which the human heart is capable of resisting whatever would bind it to the obedience of Christ.

But let us not forget that the destruction of Jerusalem, with its signs and tribulations, is set in the scriptures as a type of an unspeakably more awful and momentous event→ THE END OF THE WORLD. A day cometh when "the sun shall be darkened, and the moon shall not give her light, and the stars shall fall from heaven, and the powers of the heavens shall be shaken: And then shall appear the sign of the

*Voltaire.-Watson's An. for Bihla. 169.

son of man in heaven: and then shall all the tribes of the earth mourn, and they shall see the Son of man coming in the clouds of heaven with power and great glory. And he shall send his angels with a great sound of a trumpet, and they shall gather together his elect from the four winds, from one end of heaven to the other."* When that day shall arise on the world, knoweth no man. One thing we know, that it will find us just as death shall find us. Death, to each of us, will be virtually the coming of the Son of man. Then our eternal state will be sealed. Therefore doth wisdom utter her voice: O ye sons of men, prepare to meet your God! for in such an hour as ye think not the Son of man cometh. Watch! walk as children of light. Embrace the promises of the gospel, and live by faith in Christ Jesus the Lord! "Blessed is that servant whom his Lord, when he cometh, shall find so doing."

POSTSCRIPT.

The following remarks on the subject of chance, in connexion with prophecy, though in a measure anticipated in the quotation from Dr. Gregory, at the end of the last lecture, are too valuable to be omitted, and constitute a most appropriate supplement to all that has been said on this most interesting branch of the evidences of christianity. They have been kindly prepared, at the request of the author, by a friend and parishioner, who finds no incompatibility between a supreme devotion of himself to the faith and service of Christ, and an eminent proficiency in mathematical and other human sciences.

"The argument from the fulfilment of prophecy, which appears so strong and conclusive in its affirmative aspect, is no less so when the negative mode of reasoning is adopted. We may waive, for example, the idea of a divine intelligence operating in the annunciation and fulfilment of prophecy, and attempt to account for the facts mentioned in some other way. But upon what other principle can we account for them? The prophetic scheme is evidently too vast and multifarious for human agency; and this excluded, there remains only the hypothesis of chance—the negation of all intelligence, human and divine. The law of events, under this supposition, is the same as that by which probabilities are calculated in some of the pursuits and occupations of life; and an argument on this point, therefore, resolves itself into a mere application of the theory of probabilities to the subjects of prophecy. If it result from such application that the fulfilment was an event to be calculated upon with some degree of reasonableness, independently of any intelligent

* Mat. xxiv. 29, 30, 31

supervision, then are we at liberty to adopt the philosophy of chance; but otherwise we are bound to reject it.

"The laws of chance, applicable to the case, may be briefly stated as follows: When circumstances seem to determine an event equally, in two different ways, the chances are said to be equal; and the expectation of either result is expressed, with evident truth, by the fraction 1-2. But when the determining circumstances are unequally divided, so that any proportion, more or less than half of the whole number, operates in favour of a particular result, the chance of that result is expressed by the corresponding fraction. If a ball, for example, is to be drawn from a bag containing equal numbers of white and black, the probability of a white one being drawn is expressed numerically by 1-2; but if there be only one fifth of the whole number white, the ratio of expectation will be 1-5, and so for any other proportion: and this is the general law of simple probability.

"The probability of a joint occurrence, when two independent events are expected, is determined by the product of their simple ratios; for there must evidently be, in this case, a whole range of possible results, as regards one event, corresponding to each possible result of the other; and by a parity of reasoning, the same truth is made evident for any number of events jointly considered. If balls, for example, are to be drawn concurrently from two or more bags, containing different proportions of black and white, the probability of the whole result being white will be found in the compound ratio of all those proportions: thus, if one contains 1-2 white, another 1-5th, another 1-8th, and another 1-10th, there will be one chance in 800 that, in drawing one ball from each, the whole four will be white; and this is the general law of compound probability.

"With these premises let us open the book of prophecy, and select an example from among the various remarkable events there predicted. We choose one of so extraordinary a character as to place it among the most improbable events (humanly speaking) of any age or nation; but to be quite sure that we do not over-estimate it, we suppose it to have an equal chance of general fulfilment; expressed, as we have said, by the fraction 1-2. This does not, however, include the particularities of time and place, both of which are comprehended in the terms of the prediction. With regard to time, we observe, that as there is no natural circumstance to determine the event spoken of to one age or period more than another, the probability of exact fulfilment in this respect must be inversely as the whole number of ages in which it might have taken place. This, if we allow forty years for the average duration of an age, is about sixty; and the fraction 1-60th, therefore, expresses the contingency of time in the case supposed. With regard to place, the probability of exact fulfilment is evidently determined by the relation of the locality named to the whole world. This, in the case referred to, is not greater than that of one to 100,000; and the fraction 1-100,000, therefore, is the numerical factor for this element of probability. Combining these three ratios, we obtain an aggregate of no less than twelve millions of chances against the fulfilment of the

assumed event at the time and place designated; and this event is the personal appearance of Jesus Christ upon earth as the Saviour of the world.

Remarkably associated with this appearance in many ancient predictions, was the continuance of the Jewish dominion, and of the temple at Jerusalem; the joint contingency of which, according to the principles explained, cannot be rated at less than 1-340th. A multitude of predictions are found, also, in various parts of scripture, relative to extraordinary particulars in the life, character, and death, of our Saviour, as well as with reference to the political and social aspect of the times in which he appeared. Many of them are so nearly miraculous in their nature, or so minute and circumstantial in their details, as almost to preclude the idea of chance in any sense. And we are very sure, therefore, that we do not assume too much in assigning to twenty of them an average equal chance of non-occurrence. Proceeding upon this ground, we find the probability of their joint occurrence opposed by a disparity of more than a million of chances to one; and it results from the combination of all the ratios thus found, that the advent of our Saviour, in all its characteristic circumstances and relations, could not have been calculated upon as a matter of fortuitous occurrence, with more than one in four thousand millions of millions of chances. The term probability can scarcely be applied with propriety to a case so very remote; but the argument does not stop here.

"Our Saviour, at a time when all the calculations of human forethought were diametrically opposed to him, predicted the general dissemination of his gospel, and the consummation of prophecy with regard to the destruction of Jerusalem, in the short space of a single generation: and so it turned out. By the laws of probability, neither event had, at the utmost, more than one chance in ninety of occurring at that particular time; and there was, therefore, only one in 8,100 of their joint occurrence.

"The predictions relative to the siege of Jerusalem, the subjugation of Judea, and the dispersion and subsequent condition of the Jews, present many particulars equally remarkable in character and fulfilment. We select twenty four, which have severally a degree of probability not greater than 1-2, and the result is an aggregate of nearly seventeen millions of chances opposed to their joint occurrence.

"The predictions of the Old and New Testament relative to the state and condition of the church in various ages, and its influence upon the moral and political welfare of mankind, furnish another class of particulars which have been singularly verified. The individual probability of most of them would be much less than 1-2; but we concede this, and limit ourselves to twelve points, the aggregate contingency of which is about 1-4000th.

"Finally, the prophecies of the Old Testament relative to the Gentile nations around Judea, and the great empires Nineveh, Babylon, Tyre, Egypt, &c., present about fifty particulars worthy of notice in this calculation. To avoid, however, all possibility of error, we consider only half that number, from which we deduce the expectation of their united fulfilment in about the ratio of one to thirty-three millions.

"There remains still a vast number of correlative and circumstantial details, not reducible to any of the foregoing heads, which are found scattered through the pages of scripture, and furnish a "thick array" of corroborative evidence for the affirmative view of the subject; but we need not fear to waive the use of them in the present calculation. The composition of the ratios already determined gives an aggregate which it requires nearly forty places of figures to enumerate, and which the utmost powers of the human mind may vainly attempt to appreciate. If we should even assume a single grain of sand for the numerator of the fraction, the whole globe of the earth, repeated many millions of times, would scarcely suffice for its denominator; and such is the extreme improbability of any consistent fulfilment of the scriptural prophecies on the principles of chance.

"It will not be objected to this calculation that it regards the different subjects of prophecy as parts of one and the same system; for although they were in fact uttered by different prophets and in diffierent ages of the world, they are all united by a common subject; and that with a degree of consistency and harmony scarcely less wonderful than the fulfilment itself."